Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Predictions for the Economy in 2015
By Bill Glynn

Although the consumer sentiment in the U.S. alone appears to be on the rise, Thanksgiving and Christmas retail sales were lackluster at best and the season was carried by online sales at best.  Unemployment is down and the stock market up.  It all looks good for 2015.  But wait.  The world is uncertain due to the withdrawal of American leadership abroad.  If you think Greece caused a worldwide panic, wait until sanctions in Russia really take hold and the imminent backlash there.  Buy beltway bandits or defense stocks with a focus on cyber security -  they will do well.
The stock market has no reason whatsoever, given the fundamentals of the world economy, to be up so much.  This is a big bubble, so look out.  The free money flowing from governments around the world will begin to dry up; and instability, underemployment and those immigrants flooding the workforce will all wait on disposable income and job availability.  Plus, think how many college grads never entered the workforce so were not counted in unemployment.  How many people were kicked off unemployment and out of the numbers or those that quit.  Real estate is on the rise again but how long will it be propped up by low interest rates – the Feds’ free money here alone will dry up.
The fundamentals of the economy, world political and military instability and a host of variables make 2015 a big toss up year.  We all hope the GOP get some things done with a President likely to veto a historic amount of bills or push a hugely radical ideological agenda regardless.  The country has already been fundamentally transformed; we are already bankrupt and we are in social, moral and political bankruptcy too.  This will come home to roost.  When?  In our lifetime for sure. 
I look at the dozens and dozens of inflection points around the world and anyone can set off chaos while the U.S. economy looks good – that band-aid covering the scab that covers the wound is still not pretty.  And, oh, let us not forget Obamacare being fully implemented.  Something is very wrong.
Posted at 16:23 PM By admin | Permalink | Email this Post | Comments (0)

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